Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Olave from EV Insight

Chris OlaveReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to accumulate 7.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
Chris Olave has compiled a whopping 119.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among WRs.
Chris Olave’s 67.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 93rd percentile for wideouts.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 9th-most receiving yards per game in football (168.0) to wide receivers this year.

Cons

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
Chris Olave has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL, completing a mere 61.5% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 16th percentile among WRs
Chris Olave has been among the bottom WRs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards