Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Saints vs. Falcons
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to accumulate 7.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
- Chris Olave has compiled a whopping 119.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among WRs.
- Chris Olave’s 67.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 93rd percentile for wideouts.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 9th-most receiving yards per game in football (168.0) to wide receivers this year.
Cons
- The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
- Chris Olave has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL, completing a mere 61.5% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 16th percentile among WRs
- Chris Olave has been among the bottom WRs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
