Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Godwin from EV Insight

Chris GodwinReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 68.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to notch 9.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

Chris Godwin has totaled far fewer air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (69.0 per game).
Chris Godwin has accumulated substantially fewer receiving yards per game (67.0) this season than he did last season (87.0).
Chris Godwin’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 79.6% to 70.1%.
Chris Godwin’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this season, compiling a measly 7.17 yards-per-target compared to a 9.83 figure last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.3%) versus wide receivers this year (64.3%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards