NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-114) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Brandon Aiyuk to accumulate 7.3 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
- Brandon Aiyuk has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).
- Brandon Aiyuk’s 54.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 42.9.
- Brandon Aiyuk has compiled significantly more receiving yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).
- Brandon Aiyuk’s ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 64.8% to 68.5%.
Cons
- The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.87 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 131.0) vs. WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
