Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Amari CooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Browns vs. Ravens
Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (+106/-145).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-145) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns have run the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 62.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Amari Cooper to accrue 7.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
- Amari Cooper has been much more involved in his offense’s pass attack this year (26.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (20.2%).
- Amari Cooper has put up significantly more air yards this year (106.0 per game) than he did last year (85.0 per game).
- The Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded the 4th-most receiving yards per game in football (180.0) versus wide receivers this year.
Cons
- The Browns are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Amari Cooper’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.9% to 62.6%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards
57
Receiving Yards
