WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Allen LazardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Packers vs. Rams
Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-137) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Allen Lazard has been less involved as a potential target this year (95.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.2%).
- THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to accrue 6.3 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
- Allen Lazard has compiled significantly more air yards this year (94.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in the league (71.2%) versus WRs this year (71.2%).
Cons
- The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Allen Lazard’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.5% to 63.5%.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line has given their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
