Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
A.J. Brown has run fewer routes this year (91.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.7%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accrue 7.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
A.J. Brown has been among the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 77.0 yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.

Cons

The Eagles are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the league.
A.J. Brown has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards