Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bears vs. Eagles
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
- A.J. Brown has run fewer routes this year (91.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.7%).
- THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accrue 7.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- A.J. Brown has been among the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 77.0 yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.
Cons
- The Eagles are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the league.
- A.J. Brown has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
