NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Tyler HuntleyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Browns vs. Ravens
Right now, Tyler Huntley’s passing yards prop is set at 174.5 yards (+112/-154).
The public has bet the OVER up to 174.5 (+112) after it opened @ 173.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens will be forced to start backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Ravens are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Tyler Huntley’s throwing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 68.9% to 78.9%.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, surrendering 8.06 yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Huntley to attempt 28.1 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
180
Passing Yards
180
Passing Yards
