Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tom BradyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Buccaneers vs. Bengals
Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 274.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 274.5 (-115) after it opened @ 274.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 68.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 2nd-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.
Cons
- Tom Brady has thrown for many fewer yards per game (287.0) this year than he did last year (319.0).
- Tom Brady’s passing effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 6.44 yards-per-target compared to a 7.48 figure last year.
- The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on a lowly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
308
Passing Yards
308
Passing Yards
