Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tom Brady from EV Insight

Tom BradyPassing Yards

Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 274.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 274.5 (-115) after it opened @ 274.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 68.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 2nd-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.

Cons

Tom Brady has thrown for many fewer yards per game (287.0) this year than he did last year (319.0).
Tom Brady’s passing effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 6.44 yards-per-target compared to a 7.48 figure last year.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on a lowly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
308
Passing Yards