Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Taylor HeinickePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Commanders vs. Giants
Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 204.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 204.5 (-110) after it opened @ 213.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
- The Washington Commanders O-line has allowed their QB 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- The New York Giants defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the slowest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Washington Commanders have utilized play action on 34.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
Cons
- The Commanders are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
- Taylor Heinicke’s throwing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.0% to 62.7%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
193
Passing Yards
193
Passing Yards
