Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Darnold from EV Insight

Sam DarnoldPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Darnold’s passing yards prop is set at 180.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 180.5 (-110) after it opened @ 176.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Sam Darnold’s throwing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 59.9% to 63.4%.
Sam Darnold’s throwing efficiency has been refined this season, totaling 7.46 yards-per-target vs just 6.16 mark last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-lowest clip in the NFL against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (66.0%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
177
Passing Yards