Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Sam DarnoldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Panthers vs. Steelers
Right now, Sam Darnold’s passing yards prop is set at 180.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 180.5 (-110) after it opened @ 176.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Sam Darnold’s throwing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 59.9% to 63.4%.
- Sam Darnold’s throwing efficiency has been refined this season, totaling 7.46 yards-per-target vs just 6.16 mark last season.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-lowest clip in the NFL against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (66.0%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
177
Passing Yards
177
Passing Yards
