Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Ryan TannehillPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Chargers vs. Titans
Right now, Ryan Tannehill’s passing yards prop is set at 213.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 213.5 (-110) after it opened @ 220.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Ryan Tannehill has been among the best per-play quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 7.90 yards-per-target while checking in at the 87th percentile.
- The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Tennessee Titans have used play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 11th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.8 plays per game.
- Ryan Tannehill has attempted just 28.2 throws per game this year, ranking in the 18th percentile among QBs.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 7th-least yards in the league (just 213.0 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards
254
Passing Yards
