Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Raiders vs. Patriots
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 249.5 (-115) after it opened @ 232.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 37.9 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.
- Mac Jones has been among the most on-target passers in the league this year with a stellar 67.4% Completion%, checking in at the 87th percentile.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 4th-most yards in the NFL (275.0 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
- The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
288
Passing Yards
288
Passing Yards
