WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Kirk CousinsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Vikings vs. Colts
Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 260.5 (-110) after it opened @ 265.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Kirk Cousins has been among the leading QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 262.0 yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the least yards in the league (just 204.0 per game) vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, yielding 7.19 yards-per-target: the 8th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
302
Passing Yards
302
Passing Yards
