Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 307.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 307.5 (-115) after it opened @ 301.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 63.4 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 40.0 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 43.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.

Cons

The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Justin Herbert has been among the least efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 6.59 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 16th percentile.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
303
Passing Yards