Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Deshaun Watson from EV Insight

Deshaun WatsonPassing Yards

Right now, Deshaun Watson’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 220.5 (-113) after it opened @ 228.5 (-115).

Pros

The Cleveland Browns have run the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 62.5 plays per game.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 3rd-most yards in the league (276.0 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest clip in football versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year (75.1%).
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has displayed poor efficiency this year, allowing 8.43 yards-per-target: the 5th-most in football.

Cons

The Browns are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to attempt 28.8 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.

Projection

THE BLITZ
194
Passing Yards