Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 238.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in football.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line has given their quarterback 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Derek Carr has thrown for substantially fewer yards per game (236.0) this year than he did last year (274.0).
Derek Carr’s passing accuracy has declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.9% to 61.9%.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in the league against the New England Patriots defense this year (65.8%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards