Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Titans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (+104) after it opened @ 54.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to total 16.6 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be a much bigger part of his offense’s rushing attack this week (67.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (50.5% in games he has played).
- Travis Etienne has picked up 64.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (88th percentile).
- Travis Etienne’s ground efficiency (5.28 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (90th percentile among RBs).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the worst in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
- Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-least yards in football (just 81 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards
81
Rushing Yards
