Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rhamondre Stevenson from EV Insight

Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards

Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (+100/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (+100) after it opened @ 72.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to accrue 19.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a much bigger part of his offense’s rushing attack this week (71.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (57.1% in games he has played).
Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for substantially more yards per game (59.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).
The Arizona Cardinals defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 5.18 yards-per-carry.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 39.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards