NBA Playoffs Series Preview: Cavaliers vs. Celtics
Alex Christenson
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bengals vs. Browns
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.0 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 15.0 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
- Joe Mixon has generated 64.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (88th percentile).
- The Cleveland Browns defense has had the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 5.23 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 9th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 38.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s run game this week (62.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (76.9% in games he has played).
- The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
