Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D'Onta Foreman from EV Insight

D’Onta ForemanRushing Yards

Right now, D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-130/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-130) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to garner 17.2 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
D’Onta Foreman has picked up 51.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (75th percentile).
Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (157 per game) against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.8 plays per game.
The Carolina Panthers have gone up against a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards