NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
D’Onta ForemanRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Right now, D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-130/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-130) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to garner 17.2 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
- D’Onta Foreman has picked up 51.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (75th percentile).
- Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (157 per game) against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.8 plays per game.
- The Carolina Panthers have gone up against a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards
74
Rushing Yards
