Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Titans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 89.5 (-110) after it opened @ 83.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 5th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 47.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to earn 24.6 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
- Derrick Henry has been given 84.5% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.7 plays per game.
- Derrick Henry has run for significantly fewer yards per game (88.0) this year than he did last year (105.0).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense boasts the 9th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering just 4.37 yards-per-carry.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles grade out as the 4th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
107
Rushing Yards
107
Rushing Yards
