Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chargers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-120) after it opened @ 48.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
- Austin Ekeler has earned 58.0% of his team’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 32.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Austin Ekeler has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (61.0).
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-least yards in the league (just 109 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Rushing Yards
50
Rushing Yards
