Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (+100) after it opened @ 48.5 (-120).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

Cons

T.J. Hockenson’s 40.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
T.J. Hockenson has posted a lot fewer receiving yards per game (12.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).
T.J. Hockenson’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, compiling a measly 3.76 yards-per-target compared to a 7.11 mark last year.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards