Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chargers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 19.5 (-110) after it opened @ 18.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Mike Gesicki’s pass-game effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, compiling 8.53 yards-per-target vs a measly 6.84 mark last year.
- Mike Gesicki’s talent in picking up extra yardage have gotten better this year, averaging 3.96 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 2.85 rate last year.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.7 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
- Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (56.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.3%).
- Mike Gesicki has notched quite a few less air yards this season (29.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
