Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jordan Akins from EV Insight

Jordan AkinsReceiving Yards

Right now, Jordan Akins’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 18.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-120).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a huge 17.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 69.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 136.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jordan Akins has accumulated substantially more receiving yards per game (30.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).

Cons

The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 54.0 plays per game.
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has shown good efficiency against TEs this year, yielding 5.70 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.28 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in the NFL.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards