Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Cardinals vs. Patriots
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to accumulate 4.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among TEs.
- Hunter Henry has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the league among tight ends, averaging an impressive 8.79 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 80th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.3 plays per game.
- Hunter Henry has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
- Hunter Henry’s 24.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 34.8.
- Hunter Henry has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (39.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
