Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to accumulate 4.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among TEs.
Hunter Henry has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the league among tight ends, averaging an impressive 8.79 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 80th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.3 plays per game.
Hunter Henry has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
Hunter Henry’s 24.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 34.8.
Hunter Henry has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (39.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards