Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Gerald EverettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chargers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-105) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- Gerald Everett has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (60.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (71.0%).
- Gerald Everett’s possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 82.2% to 68.3%.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.35 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in football.
- The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
