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Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

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Christian Kirk

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 14

Titans vs. Jaguars

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-113) after it opened @ 63.5 (-110).

Pros

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
  • The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
  • Christian Kirk has gone out for fewer passes this season (93.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.9%).
  • THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to accrue 7.8 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
Cons

  • THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Christian Kirk has posted quite a few less air yards this year (69.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
  • Christian Kirk’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.6% to 68.6%.
  • The Tennessee Titans pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.88 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the NFL.
  • The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards

Previous Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for J.K. Dobbins from EV Insight Next NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/11)