Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-113) after it opened @ 63.5 (-110).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
Christian Kirk has gone out for fewer passes this season (93.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to accrue 7.8 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among WRs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Christian Kirk has posted quite a few less air yards this year (69.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
Christian Kirk’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.6% to 68.6%.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.88 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards