WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Titans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-113) after it opened @ 63.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
- Christian Kirk has gone out for fewer passes this season (93.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.9%).
- THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to accrue 7.8 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Christian Kirk has posted quite a few less air yards this year (69.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
- Christian Kirk’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.6% to 68.6%.
- The Tennessee Titans pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.88 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the NFL.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
