Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 5/3)
Adam Strangis
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chargers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 292.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 292.5 (-133) after it opened @ 283.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 39.2 passes in this game, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for substantially more yards per game (273.0) this season than he did last season (204.0).
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.7 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
311
Passing Yards
311
Passing Yards
