NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Titans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet the OVER up to 235.5 (-135) after it opened @ 220.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Trevor Lawrence has passed for substantially more yards per game (244.0) this year than he did last year (212.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.78 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the league.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
237
Passing Yards
237
Passing Yards
