Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Lawrence from EV Insight

Trevor LawrencePassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-135/-101).

The public has bet the OVER up to 235.5 (-135) after it opened @ 220.5 (-110).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Trevor Lawrence has passed for substantially more yards per game (244.0) this year than he did last year (212.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.78 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the league.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
237
Passing Yards