Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam DarnoldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Right now, Sam Darnold’s passing yards prop is set at 185.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 185.5 (-115) after it opened @ 186.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, giving up 8.16 yards-per-target: the 8th-most in football.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.63 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- Sam Darnold has been among the worst precision passers in the NFL since the start of last season with a 60.0% Completion%, ranking in the 8th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
194
Passing Yards
194
Passing Yards
