Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyler MurrayPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Cardinals vs. Patriots
Right now, Kyler Murray’s passing yards prop is set at 238.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the OVER up to 238.5 (-103) after it opened @ 230.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.2% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Arizona Cardinals have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects Kyler Murray to attempt 39.0 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
- Kyler Murray’s throwing precision has tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.1% to 64.0%.
- Kyler Murray’s throwing effectiveness has worsened this season, accumulating a measly 6.04 yards-per-target compared to a 7.36 mark last season.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 10th-least yards in the NFL (just 216.0 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in football versus the New England Patriots defense this year (65.9%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
289
Passing Yards
289
Passing Yards
