Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kirk CousinsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Lions vs. Vikings
Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 279.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 279.5 (-115) after it opened @ 275.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- Kirk Cousins has been among the best quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a stellar 252.0 yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
299
Passing Yards
299
Passing Yards
