Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kirk Cousins from EV Insight

Kirk CousinsPassing Yards

Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 279.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 279.5 (-115) after it opened @ 275.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Kirk Cousins has been among the best quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a stellar 252.0 yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

Cons

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
299
Passing Yards