WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Patriots vs. Bills
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to notch 19.1 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be much more involved in his team’s run game this week (71.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.1% in games he has played).
- Rhamondre Stevenson has run for a lot more yards per game (60.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
- The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 24th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
Cons
- The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-least run-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 37.6% run rate.
- The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
- The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards
86
Rushing Yards
