NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Texans vs. Browns
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 98.5 yards (-139/+102).
The public has bet the OVER up to 98.5 (-139) after it opened @ 89.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Browns are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 4th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 49.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.7 plays per game.
- Nick Chubb has generated 95.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (99th percentile).
- Opposing teams have rushed for the most yards in the NFL (169 per game) versus the Houston Texans defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards
86
Rushing Yards
