Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Nick Chubb from EV Insight

Nick ChubbRushing Yards

Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 98.5 yards (-139/+102).

The public has bet the OVER up to 98.5 (-139) after it opened @ 89.5 (-120).

Pros

The Browns are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 4th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 49.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.7 plays per game.
Nick Chubb has generated 95.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (99th percentile).
Opposing teams have rushed for the most yards in the NFL (169 per game) versus the Houston Texans defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards