Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Latavius Murray from EV Insight

Latavius MurrayRushing Yards

Right now, Latavius Murray’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to garner 15.4 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be a much bigger part of his team’s running game this week (67.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.8% in games he has played).
Latavius Murray has run for many more yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (37.0).

Cons

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Broncos are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 10th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-least yards in the NFL (just 82 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards