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Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Latavius Murray from EV Insight

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Latavius Murray

Latavius MurrayRushing Yards

Player Props – Week 13

Ravens vs. Broncos

Right now, Latavius Murray’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

  • The Denver Broncos have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
  • THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to garner 15.4 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
  • THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be a much bigger part of his team’s running game this week (67.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.8% in games he has played).
  • Latavius Murray has run for many more yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (37.0).
Cons

  • The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • The Broncos are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 10th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-least yards in the NFL (just 82 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards

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