WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Jeff WilsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
49ers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-103) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).
Pros
- Jeffery Wilson has been much more involved in his team’s run game this year (49.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (27.9%).
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
- Jeffery Wilson has run for many more yards per game (64.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
- Jeffery Wilson’s running effectiveness has improved this season, totaling 5.41 yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.77 figure last season.
- The Miami Dolphins have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Dolphins are a giant 14-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 34.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the least yards in football (just 79 per game) against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Rushing Yards
50
Rushing Yards
