Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Bears vs. Packers
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-115) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 8.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accrue 16.3 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs.
- Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-most yards in football (156 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
Cons
- The Bears are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
- David Montgomery has been a less important option in his offense’s run game this season (43.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (74.1%).
- David Montgomery has rushed for many fewer yards per game (51.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards
67
Rushing Yards
