Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Texans vs. Browns
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to total 16.8 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- Dameon Pierce has earned 82.6% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Dameon Pierce has generated 71.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among running backs (93rd percentile).
- The Cleveland Browns defense has had the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 5.36 yards-per-carry.
- The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Cons
- The Houston Texans will be rolling out backup QB Kyle Allen in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 36.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards
78
Rushing Yards
