Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Vikings vs. Jets
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to notch 16.9 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
- Dalvin Cook has garnered 75.1% of his offense’s carries this year, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 35.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Dalvin Cook has rushed for significantly fewer yards per game (75.0) this season than he did last season (89.0).
- The New York Jets defense has produced the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing just 4.16 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
