Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-114).

Pros

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The 49ers have been the 10th-most run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 41.8% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accrue 12.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has generated 57.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (79th percentile).
The Miami Dolphins defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in football this year in regard to run defense.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a much smaller part of his team’s run game this week (44.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (57.3% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have run for the 7th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards