Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
49ers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-114).
Pros
- The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- The 49ers have been the 10th-most run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 41.8% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accrue 12.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
- Christian McCaffrey has generated 57.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (79th percentile).
- The Miami Dolphins defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in football this year in regard to run defense.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be a much smaller part of his team’s run game this week (44.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (57.3% in games he has played).
- Opposing offenses have run for the 7th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
- The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards
52
Rushing Yards
