Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Van Jefferson from EV Insight

Van JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Van Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).

Pros

The Los Angeles Rams will be forced to start backup quarterback John Wolford this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Rams are a huge 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The Rams have been the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Van Jefferson to accrue 7.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 4th-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.01 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Van Jefferson has accrued far fewer air yards this year (59.0 per game) than he did last year (74.0 per game).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Van Jefferson’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 54.9% to 48.3%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards