Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Van JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Rams vs. Seahawks
Right now, Van Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be forced to start backup quarterback John Wolford this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Rams are a huge 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- The Rams have been the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.3% pass rate.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Van Jefferson to accrue 7.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 4th-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.01 seconds per play.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
- Van Jefferson has accrued far fewer air yards this year (59.0 per game) than he did last year (74.0 per game).
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Van Jefferson’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 54.9% to 48.3%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
