Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Vikings vs. Jets
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-115) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The New York Jets pass defense has struggled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.81 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- T.J. Hockenson’s 40.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 48.2.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
- T.J. Hockenson has notched a lot fewer receiving yards per game (10.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).
- T.J. Hockenson’s receiving effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating a measly 3.34 yards-per-target vs a 7.11 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
