Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-115) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New York Jets pass defense has struggled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.81 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
T.J. Hockenson’s 40.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
T.J. Hockenson has notched a lot fewer receiving yards per game (10.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).
T.J. Hockenson’s receiving effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating a measly 3.34 yards-per-target vs a 7.11 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards