Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 83.5 yards (-105/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 83.5 (-105) after it opened @ 82.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 71.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in football.
Stefon Diggs has accrued many more receiving yards per game (101.0) this year than he did last year (71.0).

Cons

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The New England Patriots defense has conceded the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 142.0) to wide receivers this year.
The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.4%) to wide receivers this year (62.4%).
The New England Patriots pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.83 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in football.
The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 7th-best CB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards