Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (+100/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (+100) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 7.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has been much more involved in his team’s passing attack this season (20.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (12.8%).
The Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the league (60.0) to TEs this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.1% to 69.2%.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.99 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the league.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards