Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Parker Hesse from EV Insight

Parker HesseReceiving Yards

Right now, Parker Hesse’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (+140/-180).

The public has bet the OVER up to 10.5 (+140) after it opened @ 7.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
Parker Hesse has gone out for fewer passes this season (29.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (16.1%).
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (58.0) to TEs this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.8 plays per game.
Parker Hesse has been among the weakest pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a lowly 11.0 yards per game while ranking in the 18th percentile among TEs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers project as the 9th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
13
Receiving Yards