NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Cowboys vs. Colts
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Colts are an enormous 10.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 6th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 140.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.2 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Cons
- Michael Pittman has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (64.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Michael Pittman’s receiving effectiveness has worsened this year, accumulating just 7.55 yards-per-target compared to a 8.64 mark last year.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 131.0) to WRs this year.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has shown good efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 7.83 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards
78
Receiving Yards
