Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Justin Jefferson from EV Insight

Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 83.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Justin Jefferson has notched quite a few more receiving yards per game (109.0) this season than he did last season (90.0).

Cons

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
Justin Jefferson has compiled far fewer air yards this season (108.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson’s 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The New York Jets defense has given up the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 125.0) versus WRs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
106
Receiving Yards