Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Vikings vs. Jets
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 83.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Justin Jefferson has notched quite a few more receiving yards per game (109.0) this season than he did last season (90.0).
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- Justin Jefferson has compiled far fewer air yards this season (108.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
- Justin Jefferson’s 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 81.0.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
- The New York Jets defense has given up the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 125.0) versus WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
106
Receiving Yards
106
Receiving Yards
