Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet the OVER up to 76.5 (-106) after it opened @ 70.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 99.3% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

Ja’Marr Chase’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling a measly 8.98 yards-per-target compared to a 10.34 mark last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards